Sure, Trump is up by forty points nationally. But what would happen to those forty points if he went 0-for-2 in the two states? This scenario is unlikely, but not impossible.
, “Trump’s sizable lead is not the largest ever enjoyed by a Republican at this early point in a caucus campaign cycle. And, crucially, we have seen one previous GOP candidate—Bob Dole, in the 1996 election cycle—lose more than 40 points of support between roughly this point and the actual caucuses.”managed to squeak by with an Iowa win. Still, these examples provide a cautionary tale for anyone who thinks the nomination is already over.
That message may or may not work, but for me it’s the best they’ve got. And again, the numbers aren’t as daunting as people looking solely at national polls might believe.
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